Afghanistan: To Know You Is To Kill You
The Taliban are increasingly desperate to decrease the pressure on them from U.S. and NATO troops. In particular, the campaign against the Taliban leadership (the guys who command a few hundred men in part of a province or city), is causing major morale problems. Not just among the field commanders, but also among the rank-and-file Taliban. These guys are increasingly disillusioned with Taliban tactics that often stress killing terror tactics against civilians. The Taliban gunmen are often believers in the Taliban idea of a religious dictatorship eliminating corruption and bringing peace and prosperity to the countryside. But this is not what the Taliban is actually doing, even in areas where they have a lot of control. As a result, recruiting is more difficult (even with the offer of higher pay), and desertions are increasing.
The American “decapitation” (arrest or kill leaders) approach distracts leaders from their main job (organizing roadside and other bomb attacks, as well as fund raising and recruiting). The Taliban leadership jobs pay well, and you get to park your family across the border in Pakistan, where they will be taken care of if you get killed. But the Taliban commanders are not suicidal, and are alarmed at the efficiency of the decapitation campaign.